There is no reliable return figure you can attach to the Altersvorsorgedepot (the German state-subsidised private pension depot). Whether your savings grow depends on the investment you choose, the costs of the product and how long you pay in. This guide shows what you can calculate in advance, what risk sits behind the investment, and where the limits of any return expectation lie.
Short answer: There is no guaranteed return on the Altersvorsorgedepot. What is fixed is the state subsidy: the basic allowance is 50 cents per euro of your own contribution up to 360 euros, and 25 cents per euro above that, up to 540 euros a year in total. Investment returns depend on the product and the investment. Last updated: November 2026. The reform is scheduled to apply from 1 January 2027.
The most important points at a glance
- No fixed return can be stated for the Altersvorsorgedepot. Providers that promise one should make you cautious.
- The allowance is a statutory subsidy per euro of your own contribution. It is not a return on the capital market.
- A depot without a guarantee carries price fluctuations. A guarantee product limits the loss risk through a contribution guarantee, while its upside depends on the contract.
- Costs affect the result permanently. You will find them in the product information provided by the provider.
- A return assumption only makes sense together with your time horizon and your tolerance for risk.
Why no fixed return can be named
Developments in equity, bond and fund markets cannot be predicted. Past price movements say nothing binding about the future. The Altersvorsorgedepot therefore does not behave like a savings account with a set interest rate. Its result depends on the product you select and on the markets in which that product invests.
If you are looking for a number, it is better to work with the components that are fixed. These are the subsidy amounts, the costs of the product and the length of the saving phase. A separate calculation with clearly marked assumptions then shows how different developments would affect the final result.
Which subsidy you can plan with
The basic allowance grows with your own contribution, but not in the same proportion. Up to 360 euros of own contribution per year you receive 50 cents per euro. For the further amounts up to 1,800 euros you receive 25 cents per euro. The annual maximum of 540 euros is reached at an own contribution of 1,800 euros. The Bundesrat approved the reform on 8 May 2026 (status: November 2026), and the source is listed below.
| Own contribution per year | Basic allowance per year |
|---|---|
| 360 euros | 180 euros |
| 720 euros | 270 euros |
| 1,800 euros | 540 euros |
The child allowance is separate and amounts to up to 300 euros per child and year. The one-off entry bonus of 200 euros requires that the contract is concluded before the age of 25. Neither amount changes the return question, but both increase the balance independently of the capital market.
Whether the subsidy is worth it for you depends on your personal situation. The income thresholds are explained in our article on when the Altersvorsorgedepot pays off.
Depot without guarantee or guarantee product: what drives the outcome
The chance of return is distributed differently between a depot product without a guarantee and a guarantee product. The exact conditions apply to the contract documents of the respective provider.
| Feature | Depot without guarantee | Guarantee product |
|---|---|---|
| Price risk | Borne by the saver | Limited by a contribution guarantee |
| Chance of growth | Depends on the chosen investment | Restricted, depends on the contract |
| Costs | See the provider’s product information | See the provider’s product information |
If security matters more to you than the chance of growth, look closely at the guarantee variant. If you have a long time horizon and can accept fluctuations, the depot product deserves a closer look. Both routes require checking the costs, because fees reduce both results.
Why the time horizon changes the return question
The longer your money is invested, the more strongly costs and fluctuations matter. Short-term price falls play a different role in a long saving period than in a payout within a few years. The time until your pension begins is therefore the first step in any return considerations.
If you later switch to the payout phase, check how the balance is managed then. The rules are set out in the contract and are not part of a general return assumption.
Costs affect every scenario
Fees, administration charges and product costs reduce the return regardless of how well the investment performs. A product with higher costs therefore has to earn more just to reach the same level. When comparing offers, put the total costs side by side rather than looking at individual fee items.
An overview of what to look for when comparing costs is in our guide to comparing Altersvorsorgedepot offers. It covers types of costs and contract questions without assuming any return figure.
Calculate with scenarios instead of one number
A sensible calculation works with three scenarios: a weak, a medium and a favourable development. Each assumption is clearly labelled as an assumption. The subsidy amounts stay the same in every scenario because they do not depend on the capital market. This shows how strongly the final result depends on the investment and how much of it comes from the fixed subsidy.
A worked example with your own contributions and the statutory allowances is in our calculator guide for the Altersvorsorgedepot. There the allowance can be viewed separately from the investment result.
Frequently asked questions
Can I count on a fixed return with the Altersvorsorgedepot?
No. A fixed return is not provided for. The allowance is set by law, but the return on the investment is not. Calculations with a return assumption should always be marked as an assumption.
How high does the return need to be for the depot to pay off?
This also depends on the subsidy, which applies regardless of the return. The allowance is therefore a fixed part of the result. Whether additional costs are worthwhile can be judged by comparing products with their actual fees, as explained in our guide to comparing offers (in German).
Is a guarantee product the safe choice?
A contribution guarantee limits the loss risk, but it does not replace a review of the contract. Whether it suits your situation depends on your time horizon, your income and the overall picture of your pension provision. A personal assessment is offered in a consultation with Academycon (in German).
When does the new Altersvorsorgedepot apply?
The Bundesrat approved the law on 8 May 2026. The start is planned for 1 January 2027. Until then, the details and the conditions of individual providers can be checked on the providers’ pages and in the official documentation.
Where can I find binding information about a product?
The binding information is in the contract and in the pre-contractual information from the provider. It sets out costs, guarantees and payout rules. General guides, including this one, do not replace these documents.
What you can do now
- Set your time horizon until the start of your pension.
- Calculate the subsidy with your planned own contribution before you make any return assumption.
- Compare the total costs of the products using their product information.
- Work through two or three scenarios with clearly marked assumptions.
Related articles
- Altersvorsorgedepot: when does it pay off?
- Calculating the Altersvorsorgedepot allowance
- Comparing Altersvorsorgedepot offers
- Open an Altersvorsorgedepot now or wait until 2027?
Sources:
Last updated: November 2026. This guide is general information, not individual advice.
